Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
